Kerry By two

We’re into the final week of one of the most entertaining championships ever. Two teams left. Two, what you might call contrasting approaches. On the the surface it is hard to call, but if we look at the numbers and trends up to the Semi finals( 5 games) – there are some important pieces of the jigsaw that emerge.

Let’s start with the basics. ( Scoring and Conceding )

Donegal scored 136 (6-13-87) points from 165 shots, and conceded 93 (5-8-62)

Kerry hit 135(7-20-74) points from 148 shots, and conceded 102 ( 3-19-59)

So what does that tell us?

You could say that Donegal have played a higher quality of opposition, but Kerry played the All Ireland champions along the way.

Kerry's efficiency has been off the charts this year from all areas of the pitch, while Donegal have been so methodical in working the ball to high percentage scoring areas. Donegal have only scored 13 , 2 pointers, compared to Kerry's 20. But Donegal have been miserly in defence , defending the arc, and conceding only 8, 2 pointers to Kerry's 19 ...

Turnovers, Kickouts, and Where the Game Will Be Won

While both sides generated alot of their scores off turnovers. Donegal scored 54 points , Kerry scored 47.

But here’s where it gets interesting – Kerry punished opposition kickouts better, scoring 45 points , compared to Donegal’s 35. Remember how they penned Armagh in.

Donegal were slightly better on their own restarts. They got 47 points from their own kickouts; Kerry managed 43. Not much in it.

How Kerry go about forcing Patton long could be the key in determining the result, but I think they will gamble, while trying to ensure that they are protected from the long flick on which worked so well against Meath

Interestingly, while Joe O'Connor is playing out of his skin, it is Mark O Shea who has been their main long K/O target. 

The team that wins the kickout battle will give themselves a huge platform to win the game.

The Players That Matter Most

For Kerry, it all starts with David Clifford. He was involved in 48 scoring chances and was directly responsible for 47 points. He’s not just the best finisher in the game – he’s the most involved player in the country.

Sean O’Shea had 32 involvements and 33 points. He came alive against Armagh, was closely marked v Meath, but he’s been very  important. Dylan Geaney too – involved in 22 scoring chances, and a real link between Kerry’s middle third and their finishers.

Donegal’s firepower comes from spreading the load. Shane O’Donnell has been their main man. He’s not the top scorer, but he’s been involved in 38 scoring chances and assisted 23 of them, which tells you alot about the Mc Guiness project

Michael Langan is the most efficient shooter they have, and his ability to produce big scores is up there with Kerry's best. Conor O’Donnell has finished nearly everything he’s touched. Add in Gallen, Murphy, Mc Brearty, and Thompson, and you’re dealing with a team that has depth, and that shares the load better than any other in the country. This could sway it for Donegal. 

The Verdict

If you go off shot volume in previous games, Donegal probably have the slight edge. But Kerry will have a plan to disrupt the Donegal scoring sources. 

If you go off best player in the country, Kerry have the edge. But Donegal will have a plan to disrupt this.

In the end, it will be Kerry’s ability to press Patton's Kickouts high, and then squeeze every drop out of the possession they win from them that will be  key. When Kerry win opposition kickouts they go direct ( Clifford)  , when Donegal win them, they tend to go slower, resulting in a higher return off opposition Kickouts for Kerry.

Add in the form of Clifford and O’Shea, plus the return of Paudie Clifford, Kerry have a slight edge.

Kerry by two.