Kerry Hit 36 shots v Cavan....

Kerry go into this weekend’s game as 6/4 outsiders — not a position they’re used to. Armagh have been very consistent, defensively solid, and sharp in front of goal. So let's look at some of the numbers

Attacking Threat:

Last week we talked about Kerry averaging just 25 shots per game. But against Cavan, that jumped to 36 shots . That’s a significant increase in output, and it wasn’t handed to them. Cavan had been holding teams like Mayo, Tyrone, and Donegal to just 31 shots on average. So this was Kerry creating — not being gifted — chances. Is this a sign of things to come?

Armagh, on the other hand, have averaged 30 shots per game. And as we all know: those games came against Galway, Derry, and Dublin — three of the best teams in the competition. But will 30 shots be enough this weekend in Croke Park?

Shot Accuracy Tells Its Own Story

Looking at total shots,  scores, and efficiency

• Armagh: 70 shots, 68 points, 87% efficiency ( across 3 games)

• Kerry: 87 shots, 91 points,  93% efficiency ( across 4  games) 

While both teams are extremely efficient, Kerry just happen to be converting at a slightly higher rate.

Defensive Numbers: Two Different Strengths

While Armagh are conceding 34 shots per game, only 69% of those chances are converted by opponents. That tells you something about their structure — they’re giving up shots, but not good ones, or they are getting pressure on the shot.

Kerry, meanwhile, are conceding just 28 shots per game across their last four matches, with opposition teams having a 75% efficiency score. Pretty impressive for a team that is sometimes perceived to be open at the back. 

The Shooters 

Kerry (4 games)

Armagh (3 games)

The VERDICT:

Too Tight  to call. Armagh spread the scoring, Kerry rely on Clifford.  Armagh are extremely well organised at the back, but Kerry are pretty solid also.